Grayscale Win Spurs 75% Chance of 2023 Bitcoin ETF Launch

Grayscale Win Spurs 75% Chance of 2023 Bitcoin ETF Launch


In the aftermath of Grayscale's recent legal triumph over the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas from Bloomberg ETF have revised their predictions concerning the timeline for the introduction of a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) product. 

The legal victory for Grayscale against the regulatory body could potentially influence the pace and circumstances surrounding the launch of a spot bitcoin ETF, prompting these analysts to reassess their earlier projections.

As a result of the recent developments, the analysts have now revised their forecast, indicating a higher likelihood of a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) launching in 2023. They assign a 75% probability for this eventuality. Furthermore, their assessment suggests that by the conclusion of 2024, the launch of a spot bitcoin ETF appears increasingly probable, almost resembling a "done deal" within that time frame. 

The updated estimate reflects the evolving landscape influenced by Grayscale's legal success, potentially shaping the trajectory for the introduction of a spot bitcoin ETF.

In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), analyst Eric Balchunas, alongside James Seyffart, communicated their updated assessment. They have now raised the probability of spot bitcoin ETFs launching this year to 75%, a notable increase from their earlier estimate. Looking ahead, they project a 95% likelihood of such ETFs being introduced by the conclusion of 2024. 

Balchunas highlighted that although their initial odds incorporated Grayscale's legal victory, the unexpected unanimity and decisiveness of the ruling have left the SEC with limited maneuverability. This outcome has led the analysts to further solidify their projections regarding the imminent launch of spot bitcoin ETFs.

Addressing the queries that emerged following recent developments, James Seyffart confirmed the updated outlook alongside Eric Balchunas. They have now elevated the likelihood of a spot bitcoin ETF launching in 2023 to 75%. 

Furthermore, Seyffart emphasized their strong conviction that the launch of such an ETF is nearly assured, with expectations pointing towards its introduction by the conclusion of 2024. This heightened confidence stems from their evaluation of the evolving regulatory landscape in the wake of Grayscale's successful legal outcome.

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